In West Asia, India Faces A Persian Puzzle

The regime in Tehran has been hit and dented, but it remains in place, and a change that brings in a dissident based in the West may not happen anytime soon. Changes may occur from within, with the consent of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. 

Given his advancing age and Iran’s desire to mainstream its economy, the Supreme Leader may want to pave the way for a relatively younger and moderate leader as his successor. Yet, US President Donald Trump's goal — to force Tehran into making major compromises — may not yield the desired results, as Persian pride remains intact.

Negotiation With Persian Pride Not Easy

Negotiating with Iran is easier said than done. It is far more complex than one would imagine. Iranians remain among the toughest negotiators, possibly even tougher than the Chinese or Indians. An approach that recognises Persian civilizational pride and Iranian history is more likely to succeed than one that is based on usual Western talking points.

As it turns out, despite huge internal pressure, Tehran has displayed a mature approach and did not block the Strait of Hormuz, signalling that it is not an obstinate power.  

Iran is today weaker than it ever was during the last 20 years, with its proxies in Southern Lebanon and Gaza badly hit, and a Sunni hardliner in power in Damascus. While its regional ambitions may have slowed down, they have not been buried.

Therefore, a confidence-building measure across West Asia is necessary to avoid future conflicts and sectarian battles. Tehran and Riyadh need to make extra efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region, which is still the world's primary source of fossil fuel, and for remittances accruing to several Asian and African countries.

Iran Cannot Be Ignored In West Asia

Recognition of Iran as a mid-range power would go a long way to safeguarding stability in West Asia and making it a pillar of India's Global South outreach. The theory of balancing power doesn't exist only on paper—it also often brings desired results in international relations. In the backdrop of this principle, New Delhi has played wisely, as it needs to maintain its ties with Tehran. 

India’s ties with Israel are strategic and critical for a wider outreach to West Asia that acts as a bridge to Southern Europe and the Mediterranean. A genuine goodwill exists in India for Israel, and vice versa.

Yet, neither the civilisational linkages between India and Iran nor the advantages of Iran’s geography can be underestimated. Iran can be a useful partner to counter extremist ideologies like that of the Muslim Brotherhood. A weaker Iran is not in anyone’s interests, let alone India's.

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geo-economics. Views are personal)