How Trump’s Climate Policies Could Impact India

His administration’s approach — marked by increased fossil fuel production by the USA, a retreat from global climate commitments, and a rollback of environmental regulations — raises significant concerns for countries like India that are particularly vulnerable to climate change.

In a latest move, US government scientists participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global assessments in Hangzhou, China were issued a stop-work order from the Trump administration. The IPCC is considered the most authoritative source of global climate science information.

The US has historically been a leader in climate science, contributing money, personnel, data collection efforts and climate modeling resources. Now, it’s stepping away. 

While the IPCC can and will function without Uncle Sam, the absence of its largest donor and a key player in climate diplomacy is far from ideal. Climate change doesn’t care about “America First”. The climate vulnerable in the US will suffer just as much as those in the rest of the world.

A Second Withdrawal

One of Trump’s earliest moves in his second term was once again pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement. His administration argues that the accord unfairly burdens the US while allowing countries like China and India to continue emitting greenhouse gases.

However, this decision has far-reaching consequences for global climate finance and emission reduction efforts.

"I withdrew from the one-sided and very expensive Paris Climate Accord. It's a one-way street. Under that accord, we pay US$ 1 trillion... They pay nothing, China doesn't pay anything. India doesn't pay anything, Russia doesn't pay. We just pay everybody. It's like a health organisation, and every one of the... every deal is no good. But we're changing it," Trump said. 

Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries, including the US, had committed to mobilising US$ 100 billion annually to help developing nations adapt to climate change and transition to greener economies. With the US stepping back, India and other developing countries face a shortfall in expected climate finance, potentially slowing their renewable energy transition.

India has been a vocal advocate for wealthier nations fulfilling their financial commitments under the agreement. Trump’s withdrawal threatens to undermine these efforts, leaving India to seek alternative funding sources for its ambitious renewable energy targets.

Fossil Fuel Expansion And Its Impact On India

Trump’s "energy emergency" declaration has led to a renewed push for fossil fuel projects in the US, including more oil drilling, fracking, and coal production. This increase in global fossil fuel supply could have mixed effects on India.

As one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil and natural gas, India may benefit from lower global prices if US fossil fuel production surges. Over the years, India has increased its energy imports from the US, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, reducing its reliance on traditional suppliers in the Middle East.

This increased dependency on American fossil fuels could also slow India's clean energy transition, particularly if cheaper fossil fuels undercut the competitiveness of renewables.

Moreover, the rollback of environmental regulations in the US and its reduced commitment to emission reductions may provide cover for other nations to delay climate action.

If other large emitters follow suit, India, which is already grappling with severe climate impacts like heatwaves, erratic monsoons, and rising sea levels, will face greater environmental risks.

The Plastic Problem

Trump has also reversed federal policies that sought to phase out single-use plastics, favoring increased plastic production instead. He has mocked environmental regulations on plastics, even dismissing bans on plastic straws as unnecessary.

India has been at the forefront of reducing plastic waste, with its nationwide ban on certain single-use plastics coming into effect in 2022. However, the US policy shift could slow down global progress on reducing plastic pollution.

American plastic exports to Asia, including India, could rise as a result of deregulation, exacerbating India’s already severe plastic waste crisis. According to a report by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), a significant portion of plastic pollution in the Indian Ocean comes from discarded plastic imports. The reversal of US plastic regulations may further complicate India’s battle against plastic waste.

Climate Science And International Collaboration

The US has historically been a leader in climate science, with agencies such as NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) providing critical data on climate trends, weather patterns, and ocean health. Trump’s previous term saw funding cuts to these agencies, and his second term is expected to bring further rollbacks.

This could have direct implications for India, which relies on global climate data to prepare for extreme weather events like cyclones and heatwaves. If funding cuts disrupt international data-sharing agreements, Indian meteorological agencies and disaster preparedness programmes could face challenges in accessing critical forecasting models.

The Road Ahead For India

While Trump’s policies pose significant challenges for India’s climate and energy landscape, they also highlight the importance of self-reliance in green initiatives. India has set ambitious renewable energy targets, including reaching 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.

Despite potential setbacks in climate finance and international cooperation, the country may need to double down on domestic investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate resilience strategies.

The shift in US policy also underscores the growing leadership role that India and other emerging economies may need to play in global climate negotiations.

With countries like China making strides in clean energy, India has an opportunity to strengthen its position as a key player in the global green transition, irrespective of American climate policy reversals.

There is no doubt that Trump’s second term brings heightened uncertainty to international climate efforts. For India, the challenge will be to continue progressing on sustainability goals while navigating the repercussions of the US retreat from global climate leadership.