How Much Carbon Will Modi 3.0 Railway Projects Save?

The government’s messaging is clear: Expanding India’s rail network is not just about economic growth or connectivity. It’s also central to the country’s climate ambitions. But how exactly are these emissions being saved, and will the projections hold up?

Rail Vs Road: An 89 Per Cent Difference

At the heart of these climate claims is a stark statistic: Transporting one tonne of goods over one kilometre by rail emits just 11.5 gm CO₂, compared to 101 gm by road.

That’s an 89 per cent reduction. With Indian Railways now 98 per cent electrified, the push to move more freight from road to rail is a logical step for a country that wants to grow sustainably.

Recent infrastructure announcements highlight this link. Earlier this month, the doubling of two key routes — Koderma-Barkakana in Jharkhand and Ballari-Chikjajur in Karnataka — was announced, and is projected to save 264 crore kg of CO₂. That, the government said, was equivalent to planting 11 crore trees. These two projects alone are expected to carry 49 mt of freight per year.

The claims were even larger in April 2025, when four major projects across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra were cleared. Together, they are expected to save 477 crore kg of CO₂ emissions annually and carry nearly 89 mt of freight.

Ten such projects were announced between June 2024 and June 2025, and each comes with similar projections.

Some highlight savings of over 100 crore kg of CO₂, with freight volumes ranging from 18-51 mt per year. Each announcement is accompanied by comparisons to crores of trees planted, meant to make the emissions savings more tangible to the public.

Big Numbers, Fine Print

The cumulative numbers are impressive: More than 1,800 crore kg of CO₂ avoided, over 230 crore litres of oil saved each year. Freight capacities, meanwhile, are set to increase by more than 400 mt per annum across these projects.

These figures are not arbitrary. They are based on projected freight volumes and the well-established emissions gap between rail and road. By framing the savings in terms of trees, the government is translating tonnes of carbon into something more visible, even if the science behind such equivalence is far from exact.

"It is unclear how much of this projected freight will actually shift from roads," a climate activist told The Secretariat on condition of anonymity.

While the new lines significantly expand capacity, rail continues to lose out to road transport for several reasons: Faster door-to-door delivery and more flexible scheduling.

Without a serious push to make rail the preferred option, through better first and last kilometre connectivity, streamlined logistics, and pricing incentives, the capacity may remain underutilised.

"Several of the newly announced lines cut through ecologically sensitive or tribal regions, including parts of Odisha, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. While the carbon arithmetic adds up on paper, it does not always account for other environmental costs like deforestation, biodiversity loss, or displacement," they said. 

These trade-offs are rarely included in headline estimates, but are essential to the full picture.

A Greener Track

None of this undermines the fact that rail is a far cleaner mode of freight transport than road.

India’s progress in electrifying its railway network is among the most impressive in the world. Tapping into that clean infrastructure to move freight is both logical and necessary. It also aligns with India’s commitment to reduce emissions intensity under the Paris Agreement and its aim to reach Net Zero by 2070.

The Modi government’s latest railway push reflects that alignment. The ambition is real, and so is the potential.

But for the numbers to mean something beyond press releases, it will take more than laying down new tracks. It will require deliberate effort to shift logistics behaviour, strengthen supporting policy, and acknowledge that carbon is only one part of a much larger environmental equation.