According to several meteorological experts, the next five years are expected to witness record-breaking temperatures and more frequent heatwaves, making it imperative for governments to undertake substantial changes in policy planning. 

There is a need to redesign policies related to water resources, agriculture, energy, environment, public health, and the economy in line with changing climate patterns.

Strengthening Southwest Monsoon

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General M. Mohapatra says pIOD is a climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures become warmer in the western Indian Ocean. This pattern is highly favourable for India as it strengthens the southwest monsoon, enhances moisture transport, and effectively reduces the adverse impact of a concurrent El Niño event.

Weather experts believe pIOD is gradually becoming active and could begin producing more favourable conditions from late July to August by generating low-pressure systems that support rainfall. 

Astronomer Jayprakash Madhak told The Secretariat, “In 1997, when India witnessed one of the strongest El Niño events, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole played a crucial role in improving rainfall during the latter half of the monsoon season. At present, the IOD is showing signs of turning positive. Although it is still in the early stages, it could begin generating low-pressure systems by late July or early August.”

Call For Redesigning Policy 

According to Madhak, the effects of El Niño are likely to continue until December 2026 and may re-emerge again in 2027. Therefore, both the Central and state governments need to redesign their policies. 

He said with global agencies warning of record-breaking temperatures over the next five years, governments must substantially increase investment in water resource management. Agricultural policies will have to promote crop varieties that can withstand higher temperatures. 

In addition, energy, environment, health and economic policies will also require new provisions to adapt to climate change.

IMD Director A.K. Das said, “El Niño conditions have developed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the monsoon season. This increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells across India. As sea surface temperatures rise abnormally, the prevailing wind patterns weaken, adversely affecting rain-bearing clouds and weakening the southwest monsoon.” 

There may, however, be relief towards the end of the month. “However, the India Meteorological Department expects the number of rainy days to increase during July and August,” Das told The Secretariat.

Growing Weather-Related Challenges

Changing climate patterns, the intensifying impact of El Niño, growing water scarcity, and climate change are creating multiple challenges across the world, including in Asian countries. 

In India, the weak monsoon this year could have significant consequences for water availability, agriculture, public health, energy security, and the economy. In this context, leading global agencies are advising governments to redesign their policies and planning while warning that the coming five years could witness new global temperature records.

The failure of the monsoon has severe consequences for agriculture and the economy. India suffered significant economic losses during previous El Niño years such as 1972, 2009, and 2015. 

The El Niño event of 2026 could emerge as another major test for the country. 

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), in its latest Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update prepared by the UK Met Office, has warned that the global average temperature is likely to remain at record levels or establish new records during the next five years. According to the report, there is a strong possibility that one of the years between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.

Lead author Leon Hermanson stated that El Niño conditions are expected to intensify by the end of 2026, making 2027 another record-breaking warm year. The impact could remain particularly strong during 2027 and 2028, accelerating global warming. 

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has urged governments to prepare for droughts, extreme rainfall, and heatwaves. She also stressed that governments and policymakers across the world must redesign policies and planning to adapt to rapidly changing climate patterns.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal. Although it originates in the Pacific Ocean, its influence extends across the globe. 

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water towards Indonesia and Australia. During an El Niño event, these winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread back across the central and eastern Pacific. As a result, India's southwest monsoon tends to weaken, heatwaves become longer and more intense, drought risk increases, and agriculture as well as water resources are adversely affected.

September May Test Agriculture

Renowned meteorologist and former Agriculture Department official Ambalal Patel told The Secretariat, “Based on the prevailing weather parameters, El Niño is expected to influence India. However, this does not necessarily mean that every region will receive deficient rainfall.” 

“Some areas may also experience heavy rainfall. The more serious impact of El Niño is likely to become visible during September, which is a matter of concern for the agricultural sector. Normally, the southwest monsoon reaches Maharashtra in early June, but this year it has weakened due to hot and dry winds blowing from the Arabian region.”

India's Contingency Plan

Anticipating the possible impact of El Niño, the Central government has initiated measures. The Ministry of Agriculture, along with other Central agencies, has held consultations with states and prepared contingency plans. 

These plans cover 315 districts across the country, of which 111 have been classified as high priority and 76 as medium priority. States have been instructed to prepare district-wise action plans. Farmers in particular are being advised to shift towards crops that require less water.

Crop Strategy Overhaul

Union Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan recently stated during a review meeting that the delayed southwest monsoon had directly affected the kharif sowing season. 

The Ministry of Agriculture and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) have jointly identified vulnerable districts facing low rainfall and inadequate irrigation. 

Revising crop strategies in rain-fed areas has now become essential. States are being encouraged to promote short-duration crop varieties, water-efficient high-yielding seeds, and intercropping practices.