Gulf Power Play: As Saudi-UAE Tension Builds, India Needs To Steer Clear

The storm was building up but it was somewhat unfathomable given the nature of ties between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh — both close allies of the US and both keen to push the new age economy. 

A direct military confrontation between the UAE and Saudi Arabia that have typically shared close ties, considered historical partners in the Gulf, was beyond imagination even if rivalry was sharpening over the past decade. Yet the direct confrontation and statements were beyond the imagination of political pundits. Several global capitals including India will closely monitor the situation given their interests and stakes in the region and also in these two countries.

A careful study of UAE’s foreign policy will showcase that Abu Dhabi is not merely an economic powerhouse but a regional player in the Gulf as well as the Horn of Africa and parts of North Africa. Over the past decade it has pursued multipolar foreign policy expanding its ties with China and Russia besides nursing its traditional ally — the US. However, the scope of UAE’s ties with China and Abu Dhabi’s political and economic partnership with Moscow surprised the powers that be in Washington. 

The depth of political ties between the UAE and Russia can be gauged from the fact Abu Dhabi was among those countries which, like India, wasted no time in condemning the attack on the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It needs to be understood in the context of the US’s big investments in the UAE. A slew of data centres has also been developed. 

But what has caught the attention was the depth of Israeli-Emirati partnership since 2020 following the Abraham Accord. 

The UAE has moved at an unprecedented rapid pace to expand its security and economic partnership with Israel unlike the other signatories of the Abraham Accord. The Israel-UAE ties can today be described as a strategic partnership. The UAE does not espouse or promote political Islam and Israel found a reliable partner in the Gulf following the October 7 terror attacks. 

The number of direct flights between Tel Aviv and UAE, pushing business and people-to-people ties has created a record of sorts. 

It is not just multipolar foreign policy and ties with Israel that is setting UAE apart. Over the past decade UAE has built its strategic influence in Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan and Somaliland besides Yemen and has even managed to expand its outreach to the Indian Ocean as well as the Red Sea. 

The UAE is investing heavily in Egypt and has a presence in Libya. This outreach while not being aggressive like Turkey has created heartburns in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is the biggest and richest Gulf country and Riyadh felt that the UAE has been trying to undermine Saudi Arabia in its backyard including the Horn of Africa. 

Yemen was the red line that the UAE crossed according to Saudi Arabia and hence the reaction. “The brotherly ties” may take time to repair and even if it does, UAE will continue to expand its influence in the region as it feels that its time has arrived. 

What’s At Stake For India

A Saudi-UAE spat is not in India’s interests at a time when geopolitics is uncertain and geoeconomics is tough. The Trump administration’s tariff policy has cast a long shadow over India’s ties with the US and exporters are bearing the brunt. The Ukraine war has created instability in Eurasia and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s intransigence is delaying the peace deal. An emerging power like India can ill afford to take sides in a UAE-Saudi conflict due to its high stakes in the region and expanding strategic partnership with both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. 

While ties with UAE and Israel continue to be important for India, New Delhi must give additional thrust on Riyadh to expand economic and investment partnership given the market size of the Saudi economy. The situation has been further complicated with Pakistan’s outreach to Saudi Arabia at the behest of the Trump administration and Pakistan Army’s inroads into Libya. 

The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defence pact aimed at “West Asian stability” can somewhat make India comfortable. India’s Trade pact with UAE followed more recently with CEPA with Oman has opened up big opportunities for New Delhi and trade pact with Saudi Arabia will be icing on the cake. Simultaneously, Indian investors can explore opportunities across infrastructure and service sectors in Saudi Arabia. The Indian defence industry needs to make a strong foray into Saudi Arabia to meet some of the requirements that Riyadh requires to add more muscle to the strategic partnership. 

India certainly needs to insulate from any brewing desert storm. 

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics. Views are personal.)