From Survival To Strategy: How India’s Budgets Rebuilt Economy After 2020

In FY2021-22, the fiscal deficit rose from 6.8% to 6.9%. Fast forward to FY2024-25, the fiscal deficit went down to 4.8%, with the real growth rate at 6.7%. TS takes a deep dive into how succeeding Budgets were anchored in the 'self-reliant' model

Budget 2026, Budget Bottomline, Economic Survey, Nirmala Sitharaman, GDP, GDP growth, Finance

India’s economy has been on quite a ride over the last five years. It started with a massive shock during the 2020 pandemic. This forced the government to pivot from growth to pure survival. Since then, the country seen a huge shift. Instead of just handing out subsidies, the focus shifted to building the country's bones. Investment in the roads, rails, and digital networks needed for the 2047 vision. It is the story of a nation moving from fixing a crisis to building a confident future.

The past half-decade has been a tough road for the Indian economy. Starting with the 2020 pandemic shock, the Union Budget had to move overnight from standard growth targets to survival mode. What followed was a massive shift in how the government spends its money. We saw a move away from quiet subsidies towards high investment in building the roads, rails, and digital networks intended to power a future $5 trillion economy. It is a journey of a nation moving from crisis management to a confident, long-term blueprint for 2047.

FY2020-21: Ease Of Living

The Budget 2020-21 was focused on "Ease of Living". The government launched a New Tax Regime and the NIRVIK scheme for exporters, betting big on agriculture and infrastructure, besides launching projects such as "Kisan Rail".

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her Budget speech, said, "This Budget is woven around three prominent themes: aspirational India, economic development for all, and caring society."

The Budget Estimate was ₹30,42,230 crore, but the pandemic pushed the Revised Estimate to over ₹35 lakh crore, as a result of which the fiscal deficit jumped from 3.5% to 9.5%. The government hoped for 10% growth, but the economy, in fact, shrank. The net exports were $291 billion, and net imports touched $394 billion.

In May 2020, the government launched the "Vocal for Local" ₹20 lakh crore relief package, which was announced months after the Budget. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "A self-reliant India is the only path." Small businesses received ₹3 lakh crore in easy loans. It also helped migrants with the "One Nation, One Ration Card" scheme.

FY2021-22: Paperless Budget

Budget 2021-22 was India’s first "fully paperless" Union Budget, presented by the Finance Minister with the help of a digital device (using the Union Budget App), marking a shift towards "digital India", driven by the consequences of the pandemic. "This Budget provides every opportunity for our economy to rise and capture the pace that it needs for sustainable growth," Sitharaman had said.

To help India recover from the pandemic's impact, the government launched the PM AatmaNirbhar Swasth Bharat Yojana for upgrading hospitals.

The government originally planned to spend ₹34,83,236 crore, but the actual cost rose to ₹34,50,305 crore, as needs changed. After the pandemic crash, the government expected a 14.4% growth rate. The fiscal deficit remained high, moving from 6.8% to 6.9%. Major money went into health (₹73,932 crore) and roads (₹ 27,539 crore). In trade, net exports reached $422 billion, while net imports climbed to $613 billion. 

FY2022-23: Amrit Kaal

This Budget set a vision for the next 25 years, the "Amrit Kaal." The government launched PM GatiShakti to fix roads and railways. They also announced a new digital rupee and the PM DevINE scheme for the Northeast. The Budget Estimate was ₹39,44,909 crore, but the Revised Estimate went up to ₹45,780,000 crore.

The Finance Minister, in her speech, stated, "This Budget continues to provide impetus for growth. It lays a parallel track of a blueprint for the Amrit Kaal, which is futuristic and inclusive."

The economy showed a strong recovery, with a 16.1% nominal growth rate. The government managed to keep the fiscal deficit at 6.4%. Big spending went into roads and railways. The net exports reached $447 billion, while the net imports touched $714 billion.

FY2023-24: Saptarishi

The Budget was built on key priorities such as green growth and the youth force. The government made the New Tax Regime the default choice to ease things; they also started the PM Vishwakarma to help local artisans with modern tools and training.

The economy did well, growing by a solid 8.2%. The government also managed to bring the fiscal deficit down from 5.9% to 5.6%. The net exports reached $437 billion for goods, while net imports stood at $677 billion. The Budget Estimate was ₹45 lakh crore, and the Revised Estimate was ₹45,758,000 crore. 

FY2024-25: Employment, Skilling, & MSMEs

The government launched the PM’s Package to help 4.1 crore youth with jobs and training. They also started the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana to give free solar power to one crore homes. To support startups, the Angel Tax was fully removed.

The Budget shifted focus toward a "Viksit Bharat" (Developed India).

Highlighting India’s progress, Sitharaman said, "The global economy, while performing better than expected, is still in the grip of policy uncertainties... In this context, India’s economic growth continues to be the shining exception, and will remain so in the year ahead."

The Budget Estimate was set at ₹48,20,512 crore, and the total expenditure was ₹48,20,512 crore.

The economy grew by 6.7% in real terms, with a 10.5% nominal growth rate. The government successfully cut the fiscal deficit down to 4.8%. Major spending went into infrastructure and defence. The net exports reached $437 billion, while the net imports stood at $720 billion.

FY2025-26: Sabka Vikas

The government launched the PM Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana to help farmers. They also introduced a major tax break, making income up to ₹12.75 lakh tax-free under the New Tax Regime. The National Manufacturing Mission was initiated to create more jobs.

The Finance Minister put the focus squarely on the people, “A country is not just its soil; a country is its people. Together, we embark on a journey to unlock our nation's tremendous potential..." she said.

The Budget Estimate was set at ₹50.65 lakh crore, while the previous year's Revised Estimate was ₹48,20,512 crore.

The government projected a 10.1% nominal growth rate for the year. They also worked towards lowering the fiscal deficit to 4.4%. 

Launched in September 2025, the simplified Indian tax system was divided into three main slabs: 5%, 18%, and 40%.

This reform cut costs for the middle class by lowering taxes on electronics and insurance.

Meanwhile, the 50% "Trump tariffs" on Indian exports created a major hurdle. In response, India is diversifying trade towards Europe, West Asia, and Africa, while strengthening domestic manufacturing to stay resilient.

Budget 2026 Outlook

As of now, India's GDP stands at approximately $4.5 trillion, making it the fourth-largest economy in the world.

For the current fiscal year (2025-26), the economy is performing better than expected, with a real growth rate of 7.4%.

Looking ahead to the 2026-27 Budget, experts expect this momentum to remain steady, though it might moderate slightly to around 6.4% to 7.2%. This stable growth rate is exactly why the government is focused on long-term infrastructure; they want to keep this engine running at a healthy pace despite global trade challenges.

(The writers are interns with The Secretariat.)

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