Disaster Management: More Preventive Measures Needed In India As Climate Change Worsens

The agencies concerned have not addressed this issue proactively. The Joshimath situation highlights the fault lines in India's risk and disaster management systems, underscoring the need for effective mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery measures to function simultaneously and efficiently.

India is highly vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters, making it one of the 10 most disaster-prone countries in the world. A majority 58.6 per cent of the landmass is at risk from moderate to very high intensity earthquakes, while over 40 million hectares (12 per cent of the land) is susceptible to floods and river erosion.

More than 75 per cent of the country's coastline is prone to cyclones and tsunamis. Add to this, 68 per cent of cultivable area is vulnerable to droughts, and hilly regions are at risk from landslides and avalanches.

Each of the five distinct regions—the Himalayan region, the alluvial plains, the hilly peninsula, and the coastal zones—has specific disaster-related challenges contributing to this overall vulnerability.

Early Warning Systems - The Most Critical And Inconsistent

In the risk and disaster management discourse, early warnings remain one of the most critical aspects that can save lives and property.

In recent times, India’s disaster management has progressed from an activity-based set-up to a proactive institutionalised structure; by changing its course from a single domain to a multi-stakeholder structure. It has also moved from a relief-based approach to a multi-dimensional, pro-active and holistic approach for risk reduction but its effectiveness seems varied across the board. 

In Sikkim, a glacier burst in October last year, similar to the Chamoli disaster in 2021, severely affecting downstream communities, revealing gaps in warning mechanisms. Hydropower projects also pose concerns, with tunnel experiments leading to accidents and downstream flooding. Himachal Pradesh categorises these incidents as disasters but lacks early warning systems.

An example of this lacunae is a flash flood that occurred at 4 am, where the first alert came from a BSF jawan, not an alarm, showing the ad-hoc nature of current  systems. Effective early warning systems are crucial to mitigate such events.

In 2014, Himachal Pradesh experienced a sudden release of water from a dam causing major damage without prior warning. This pattern is consistent across downstream floods and flash floods, where robust warning systems are missing.

On early warning systems, All India Disaster Management Institute (AIDMI) Director Mihir Bhatt told The Secretariat: “India has one of the largest multi-level, multi-sector early warning systems, covering extreme events such as cyclones. Cyclone Tauktae marked a turning point in demonstrating the effectiveness of this warning system".

Bhatt said the damages were significantly reduced due to the early evacuation of people, animals, and the protection of assets. India's early warning system now thoroughly covers the coastline, and cyclone-related mortality has decreased by over 90 per cent, according to official sources. Cyclone Biparjoy resulted in no deaths, a notable achievement.

“Would timely warnings have made a difference? Yes. The timeliness of early warnings and targeting the last mile and last person will help maintain the zero-death trend not only for cyclones but also for heatwaves and floods," he said. AIDMI’s research highlights that the reduction in deaths is worth further study.”

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is doing a good job on early flood warnings in terms of level of flooding, areas that will be affected, and time. What is needed is an anticipatory warning to individuals and assets at risk. More work on this is coming up in Kerala, Bihar, and Assam at the state level, AIDMI has found.

Vaishnavi Rathod, a researcher, stated that local and CAG reports frequently list dams, streams, and hydropower projects, but there is no systematic review or updates. Most dams have not conducted a downstream dam break analysis to simulate flash flood impacts.

Risk And Disaster Data Systems Right Now

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) share data from warning to response to loss. Over the years, more data is shared including data on early warnings, loss of life, response needs, and a lot of guidance notes and frameworks such as how to make an Agriculture Disaster Management Plan.

"There are challenges in focusing the data on user needs, recency, and more areas such as impact... data can be shared with the public", Bhatt said.

He picks on three critical issues. “One, the datasets are often scattered and do not help build coherence that is useful for action. Two, data is not harmonised with other departments such as agriculture or irrigation. Three, the data is not updated time-wise or event-wise to make data useful over time.”

Rathod said the IMD provides comprehensive bulletins for heatwaves, accessible by PIN code and updated weekly. Its impact-based warnings over the past two years have detailed the effects on agriculture, different populations, and health, making IMD a reliable source for floods, heatwaves, and monsoons among other disasters.

For more localised data, the State Disaster Management teams often provide ground-accurate information. In Assam and Guwahati, TERI and NDMA have developed a portal offering street-level flood data, utilising IMD’s early forecasts to create maps for better preparedness.

Rathod added that in Himachal Pradesh, hazard vulnerability analyses map out areas susceptible to drought, forest fires, glacier bursts, landslides, and flash floods. While this analysis is thorough, it is limited to the state level.

However, weaknesses persist in data sharing and warning systems during disasters. For instance, during the Delhi floods, committees from the Union Ministry of Jal Shakti and Delhi Irrigation Board found significant data discrepancies between upstream and downstream sections of the Yamuna, highlighting the need for better coordination and data accuracy in flood management.

Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery: The Right Policy Response

Mihir Bhatt said that India has a remarkable National Disaster Management Act which is becoming more and more effective. For example, as per the Act, all states have a disaster management plan. And as per the Act, the Finance Commission has allocated US$ 28.6 billion for the central and state governments for the next five years. Therefore, there is a plan and the budget to manage disasters.

AIDMI’s recent work on extreme heat in cities shows that each city or town must have a City Disaster Management Plan with extreme heat actions included in it. This is one. And two, AIDMI work has found that each plan must now have suitable and sustainable budget allocations to take local effective actions in partnership with citizens.

Along with localising some of these measures, critical elements in any policy formulated include mapping assessments, data sharing, preventive measures, and warning systems, said Rathod.

India has a policy structure with state and district level agencies, supported by organisations like TERI. Dam safety cells and the Dam Safety Act play a crucial role. However, constant monitoring is essential as disasters can occur suddenly.

Officials have cited funding issues as a barrier, despite their high priority. The current approach is often post-disaster, focusing on relief and compensation rather than prevention.

Preventive measures need more emphasis. Risk assessments based on geographical areas are highly effective, highlighting the necessity for proactive planning and resource allocation to mitigate disaster impacts.