Diesel Is Dead. Rev Up The Turbo Torque While You Can

“The future of diesel is death,” motorheads at forums like Team-BHP and BCM Motoring predict. Thus, torque-hungry enthusiasts need to rev up their turbocharger while they can, for it will soon be history.

The ‘10-Year Life’ norm for diesel cars in Delhi was mandated by the National Green Tribunal (NGT) in 2015. While its impact on pollution is debatable, it has made clear is that diesel’s days are numbered.

Top officials in the government have also publicly stated that a move to phase out diesel vehicles in top Indian cities has been long-studied and is now around the corner. Some in the corridors of power are even talking of phasing out petrol-only vehicles as well. This last is easier said than done.

Mixed Views From People; Corporates More Guarded

For a decade, India has debated NGT’s order on diesel cars. Some hail the move, others call it a ‘knee-jerk decision’. Drivers say: “Vehicles are one cause of pollution, what of the others? India is not a rich country and many buy second-hand vehicles as their first car. Many already own diesel cars. Hasty bans can be imprudent, a draconian way of killing aspirations and dreams.”

Auto firms have been more discerning with their words. Mahindra Chairman Anand Mahindra tweeted his concerns: “We thrive on challenges and will surprise with our resilience. Even if we believe the decision (on diesel) isn’t optimal, we will honour it and develop vehicles that comply with stipulations.”

Vikram Kirloskar, Vice-Chairman of Toyota Kirloskar Motor, felt the approach to cleaner air should have been different. “We are concerned about deteriorating air quality, but a comprehensive view of factors causing pollution needs to be taken, measured using a scientific source apportionment study. We need an action plan which helps improve air quality in a sustainable manner,” he said.

The statements pertain to a shorter diesel vehicle lifespan. Now, authorities are mulling sudden death. Apart from impacting those who own diesel vehicles, there will be a telling impact on the auto sector, revenues, creation and retention of livelihoods, and a possible doomsday call for ancillary firms, which alone number in their thousands.

India First: Nowhere Else On Planet Earth

India is the only country considering a sudden and complete ban on diesel vehicle sales. European nations such as France, Germany and the UK plan to limit diesel cars sometime in the 2030s. Some have begun imposing restrictions and are already facing ripple effects. But none, barring India, have come close to pinning down a definitive date for a total clampdown.

India’s problems stem from the Bharat Stage (BS) VI norms, comparable to Euro VI norms, which place tough restrictions on emissions, especially diesel. The goal is to limit nitrogen oxides and particulate matter (PM), inadvertently discouraging diesel usage itself. India, which enforced BS VI on April 1, 2020, has another problem — it never adopted BS V.

In a bid to match global emission norms, India jumped straight from BS IV to BS VI, sparking myriad challenges. Under BS VI, diesel vehicles mandate ‘particulate filters’ on all new units, an expensive and complicated addition. Having bypassed BS V, Indian automakers and car-owners lack the expertise and familiarity to cope with daily running requirements and limitations. This is a blooper.

For instance, BS VI diesel vehicles seek repeated regeneration (‘regen’). Simply put, particulate filters get clogged and engines have to be revved up to extreme highs (in a parked car) for heat to build up and burn off accumulated soot, turning it into ash that can be expelled by the exhaust system.

An alternative is to thunder down the road at high speeds for long distances. Forget India’s cities, this is near-impossible even on highways. As a result, new-gen diesel cars sputter and stall, leading some to resort to Indian ‘jugaad’ — disconnecting or bypassing the particulate filter. Not just illegal, this also defeats the purpose of pollution control, the primary objective behind the diesel auto masala mix.

The NGT-mandated shorter road-life, the planned ‘under-study’ ban and painful ‘regen’ have made even hardened off-roaders wary of diesel vehicles.

A Once-Hot Favourite Is Losing Followers

For Indian auto manufacturers, diesel is becoming anathema. The Audi, Volkswagen and Skoda brands are owned by VW, which was involved in an emission scandal in 2015 christened ‘Dieselgate’, costing billions of dollars and loss of credibility. Nissan-Renault tried to upgrade their K9K diesel powertrain with LNT (Lean-NOx-Trap) tech, but failed to contain emission issues, finally throwing in the towel.

Maruti Suzuki failed to upgrade its in-house 1,498cc-diesel engine due to high NOx content, despite working tirelessly on thermodynamics. It played safe and shifted focus to CNG as an alternate choice. Gas-based car offloads, however, are still to compensate for the massive diesel vehicle sales losses.

MG and Hyundai (plus sibling Kia Motors) do offer diesel options, but more from a need to be in this space; their heart is not in any concerted race to dominate. Tata Motors, Toyota and Mahindra have innovated simply because their revenue figures are so full of diesel ink that pulling out is unthinkable. Jeep offers diesels as it has no other choice — it has no alternative engine options in India.

For Citroen and Honda Motors, the focus has typically been petrol cars, with diesel being low on their consideration list. Ford is soon returning to India with the Endeavour 4x4, but will perforce have to ride its luck and fortunes on diesel, as an off-roader demands a torquey powerhouse.

Then there are Mercedes Benz, BMW, Maserati, Porsche, Ferrari and Lamborghini. The former two have already rejuggled their stable; the latter four don’t need to know the spelling of ‘diesel’ — they deal only in very top-end, petrol-guzzling rockets on wheels.

Market Truths, And Diesel-Heads That Will Be Impacted

Diesel has always been priced lower than petrol in India. At the refinery level, diesel is costlier than petrol; the fuel station price is determined by differential duties (excise) and tax (VAT) imposed by the Centre and states, respectively. When the price difference between diesel and petrol soared to 37 per cent in 2012, diesel vehicle sales jumped from 43 per cent of the total mix to 54 per cent. Once the difference cooled off, as petrol prices came down, so did sales.

Over the years, diesel sales have slithered in the smaller vehicle segment. But in the torque-heavy SUV and 4x4 space, diesel is king. That will change when diesels are discarded, with strong hybrid engines being the only possible successor. They have the advantage of an ICE engine and electric motors, which gives them immense power and greater fuel efficiency.

Hatchbacks have disowned diesel powertrains, including Altroz, Baleno, Swift, i10 and i20. Sedans are on their way to shunning them too, with only some like Verna having any worthwhile numbers (we are not including Mercedes and BMW here). MUVs such as Ertiga, XL6, Triber, Innova, Bolero are either petrol or diesel only, or lack a competent petrol engine.

Then there are SUVs like Fortuner, Gloster, Harrier, Scorpio and Safari which lack a petrol engine option altogether (or have a weak or a fuel-guzzler petrol version). Diesels hold the sway here. Hence, these will die first.

It will be tough to see them go, but then if that be the way to a cleaner future, so be it. But if this ‘survival of the cleanest’ culling still doesn’t make our air any better, it would be a tragedy.

(The writer is a veteran journalist and communications specialist. Views are personal)