Decline Of Multilateralism, Hope For New World Order Ahead Of SCO Summit

Just ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit to be held in Tianjin in China, The Secretariat organised a session titled “Rise of Asian Regionalism in the Wake of Trump Tariffs”.

The seminar brought together G K Pillai, former Home and Commerce Secretary, Rajiv Dogra, former Ambassador and former Permanent Representative to the UN, and Boris Greshnov, First Secretary (Political) at the Russian Embassy, with J N Singh, former Chief Secretary of Gujarat, moderating. The seminar was attended by policymakers, diplomats, and thought leaders. 

New supply chain dynamics will take a long time to develop, but experts agree that countries need to be nimble in their response. The real test for Asia is whether it can convert this moment of disruption into a more durable and equitable order. 

Here are the highlights from the panelists:  

J N Singh: 

“What is happening globally? Different countries are bypassing the US and trying to develop trade links.”

Things have drastically changed from the time US Vice President J D Vance, during his visit to Jaipur in April, said that India is a great place to do business. A 50 per cent tariff slapped by the US on India is the highest in the world, along with Brazil, which also faces a similar quantum of tariff.

At the time when India started importing larger quantities of oil from Russia in the wake of the conflict, the US actively encouraged such imports to strengthen the global economy. 

"The tariffs are quite a blow, not just to India, but the world over," Singh said. He added that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Japan and China, where he would be participating in the SCO summit, would be closely watched, amid emerging global realignment.

G K Pillai: 

“Trade, I always say, is like a war. Exports and imports are war.” 

Multilateralism is in suspended animation, and this is likely to remain so under the Donald Trump regime. Uncertainty in global trade policies is a given in today’s context, as countries try to navigate the challenges emerging out of the new US tariff regime. “Uncertainty in trade policies is a given. And you have to be very nimble and proactive,” Pillai said. 

Even as countries, including India, are talking about charting a new global supply chain change, “it is not an easy process”. “When it hits the US consumer, that is when the pressure will come on top,” he added. The impact will be felt by the US consumers 3-6 months down the line, he further said.

Pillai pointed out that more and more countries are now starting to adopt protectionist measures to balance the impact of Trump's tariffs. Indian businesses should also work closely with the government. “It is important for businesses to be able to liaise with the government on a daily basis,” Pillai said. 

“And this is again a problem which I would say, I kind of blame businesses. I am also, in one sense, blaming the government. We have seen this tendency, where business and government are looking at each other with a little bit of suspicion,” he also said. 

“Things are evolving, changing. So, people should be able to respond much faster. Speed of decision-making is something that's absolutely essential,” he said. 

Rajiv Dogra:

“The world today, not just India, seems to think of Trump before they go to sleep, and they wake up wondering what Trump has done to the world this morning.”

The growing opinion the world over is to move away from the US and forge new alliances and blocs, he mused. “We’re not going to have an alternative order. Be content that we have some kind of order,” Dogra said.

However, he added that even if there is no new order, countries including India can “try and tackle some of the issues which are affecting the world in various ways".

Citing a recent development, Dogra pointed out how China has diverted its imports of soybeans from the US to Brazil. “These small measures, these small actions by countries other than America, other than European countries, can have an effect in a snowballing way if they gather steam...” he said. The question is: Will it gather steam?

Amid divergent interests of various nations, along with geographic distance, it may not be easy to chart out an alternative world order, Dogra said, adding that solutions should not be so myopic even if the challenges have risen significantly. 

He also noted that a new world order, driven by China — which accounts for less than 20 per cent of the global economy — is still a distant dream. “I don't think it is possible in the foreseeable future. Because China does not have the confidence of a group of countries, like America had in 1945,” he said. 

In the post-World War II order, the US accounted for about half of the world's GDP, and enjoyed the support of multiple allies, including European countries. “And the rest of us, whether in Africa, Latin America or Asia, were too new to the rules of the game… We did not have a viewpoint at that time, because we were too busy getting used to the idea that we were not a colony,” Dogra added. 

But now, 70 years have passed, and countries have set new aspirations. “And that is why there is constant resonance that there should be a new world order. Or let's say, a change in the world order,” he said. 

Boris Greshnov: 

“There has been a thesis that there is no definition for terrorism. I understand we are closer than ever in defining terrorism at the SCO. Let's see what happens.” 

The SCO scope and its members have fostered confidence-building measures, counter-terrorism, cooperation, and a policy dialogue grounded in mutual respect and interest.

Just ahead of the SCO summit, Greshnov noted that there is a need to modernise the scope of the bloc and shift the activities from conceptual frameworks to practical implementation. This, in turn, strengthens the SCO's identity as a pillar of the emerging multipolar world.

Greshnov also said that Russia has been expanding its trade with member countries of the SCO. “In 2024, Russia's trade with the SCO countries reached a record high — US$ 400 billion. It's really something remarkable,” Greshnov said, adding that Moscow is keen to focus more on this growth and institutionalise it “through common mechanisms and long-term infrastructure”.

Connectivity is a thrust area for Moscow, as it seeks to activate both east-west and north-south corridors, with a special emphasis on the international north-south transport corridor, linking Russia, Central Asia, Iran, and India. “We are already upgrading the roads, the railways, and the ports along this axis,” he said.

He also said that the implementation of the agreement on creating favourable conditions for international road transport, signed in 2014, which came into force in 2017, needs to be given shape — "at least partially”.

“We also call for investment in green transport, digital logistics, and climate-smart infrastructure,” Greshnov said. Besides connectivity, Russia is also keen on developing a new payment infrastructure, potentially through authorised banks and digital platforms.

“To support this, we've recommended for quite some time launching financial facilitation mechanisms for early-stage initiatives, which can then attract public and private financing,” he said.