For the most part, the trajectory of India’s oil trail was hinged on West Asia. However, since 2018, a paradigm shift has been observed. Russia increased its crude oil exports by a notch, becoming the top import source for India with a supply of over 35%, and pushing old giants Iraq and Saudi Arabia into second and third spots, respectively.

This is not just a short spike anymore. The tankers docking at Indian ports are ushering in a new era driven by hard bargaining and necessity.

Let's rewind to 2015, when the oil story was different. West Asia held most of the cards. Saudi Arabia and Iraq were the undisputed leaders in oil import, with Nigeria and Venezuela acting as steady partners. Russia played an insignificant role, supplying less than 1% of India’s needs.

Back then, India played it safe. Saudi Arabia and Iraq named the price. New Delhi just signed the cheque. The only real drama came from Iran. In 2018, the Trump administration brought back strict sanctions, which was a diplomatic nightmare. But India negotiated a temporary lifeline as Washington granted a waiver to keep the taps open for a few more months.

India imported nearly 24 million tonnes of Iranian crude oil that year.

Pandemic Shock

The trouble started before the pandemic. By mid-2019, the Iranian tap ran dry. Sanctions forced India to zero out one of its cheapest suppliers. Then the real shock hit during the pandemic. The world shut down. Fuel demand in India collapsed, and global oil prices crashed.

India moved fast and used the chaos to buy cheap oil and reach full capacity in its strategic petroleum reserves. It was a smart play, but the relief was short. As the pandemic faded, big producers cut supply to drive prices back up. It stung hard; it realised it was too vulnerable. The search for new options began just as the Ukraine war was about to change everything.

The Ukraine Pivot

The war in Ukraine changed everything. The West turned its back on Moscow. Russian oil was left without buyers. Moscow became desperate, and they offered huge discounts to clear the stock.

For India, this was a lifeline. Importing over 85% of its needs meant every dollar counted. It wasn't just about savings but keeping the lights on while global prices went up. Refiners quickly changed their plants to handle Russian grades, and tankers flooded the ports. What started as a desperate deal became a steady chain. India puts its economy first. West Asia was pushed to the side, and the market changed forever.

The West hated this pivot. As Russian tankers started arriving, pressure mounted on New Delhi to cut the supply. India didn't blink. The defining moment came in April 2022, when External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated, "I suspect, looking at the figures, probably our total purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon." 

India backed the talk with action. PPAC data show that imports from Russia exploded from just 1.7% in 2019 to nearly 36% by 2025. The West complained, but India kept buying.

The Import Bill

The real timeline of India’s energy security can be depicted through its last 10-year record. According to PPAC data, the decade began with a rare stroke of luck; the global price crash of FY 2015-16 slashed India’s import bill by nearly half, dropping it to just $64 billion. But the relief was temporary. As prices climbed, the bill swelled back to $111.9 billion by FY 2018-19.

Then came the rollercoaster. The pandemic, in FY 2020-21, crashed demand and prices, shrinking the bill to a decade-low of $62.2 billion. But the rebound was brutal. The Ukraine war sent energy costs sky high, pushing India’s import bill to an all-time record of $157.5 billion in FY 2022-23.

However, the "Russian pivot" paid off. Despite record-high consumption volumes in FY 2023-24, the bill actually dropped to $132.4 billion, thanks to deep discounts from Moscow. As FY 2024-25 ends, projections suggest the bill will stabilise between $101-104 billion, proving that while India is buying more oil than ever, but paying less for it.

The 2026 Outlook

India’s energy security is under attack. The US has escalated its economic war, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods for buying Russian oil, while a new Senate Bill threatens a staggering 500% levy. 

Washington hasn't just targeted India; it has destroyed every alternative. The recent US military capture of President Maduro in Venezuela shattered any hopes of importing heavy crude. Meanwhile, despite regime-change protests in Tehran, President Trump’s fresh 25% tariff on Iranian oil has walled off that route too.

Meanwhile, India's purchase of Russian oil has somewhat eased. Data suggest that imports of Russian crude may have come down to around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December from more than 1.80 million bpd in November. This would be the lowest level since December 2022.

Diversifying Supply Chain

India’s confidence lies in its newly diversified map. Speaking earlier to The Secretariat, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri dismissed fears of supply shocks, stating, "India's supplies have diversified, so there is no problem in terms of availability." He assured that despite global volatility, there is "enough oil available" to keep the country running without a drastic price spike.

However, in the recent interaction with media at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) Chairman A.S. Sahney noted that India is ready to import oil from Venezuela if things get settled.

"As Indian Oil, we have processed Venezuelan crude earlier when it was available, like 10 years back or eight years back when it used to be there in the market. So, our refineries are varied, our refineries are robust. They can process in an admixed manner, but we can process Venezuelan crude if and when it is made available," Sahney said. 

Sanctioning Russia Act

This shift comes as the US advances the Sanctioning Russia Act, a new law backed by President Trump that threatens a massive 500% tariff on any country continuing to buy Russian oil. 

The West wants New Delhi to sacrifice its 1.4 billion people for their geopolitical goals. But India refuses to bow down. Facing absurd ultimatums and a hostile trade environment, India is standing firm; it will prioritise its own survival over foreign dictation.

(The writers are interns at The Secretariat.)