Covid Is Back, In Mild Form. Here's What India Is Doing

As of June 3, India has 4,026 active Covid-19 cases, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Kerala leads with 1,416 active cases, followed by Maharashtra with 494 cases and Gujarat with 397 cases.

Other states, including Delhi (393 cases), West Bengal (372), Karnataka (311), and Tamil Nadu (215), have also reported cases. Thirty-seven deaths, since January 1, 2025, have been recorded at the time this report was compiled. Thankfully, most of the cases are mild, with low rates of hospitalisation.

The variants in circulation in India are descendants of the Omicron lineage. They have been classified by the WHO as Variants Under Monitoring, indicating a low global public health risk, with no evidence of increased disease severity compared to other strains.

Thus far, the expert opinion is that the resurgence is manageable, with low hospitalisation rates and predominantly mild cases. In fact, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and health authorities have emphasised that while vigilance is necessary, widespread alarm is unwarranted.

As before, high-risk groups such as the elderly, the immunocompromised, and those with co-morbidities face a higher risk of severe outcomes and should take extra precautions.

Factors Behind The Resurgence

There are several factors driving the uptick in cases. Chief among these is a waning of immunity. Vaccine-induced immunity diminishes over time, particularly for those who have not received boosters in over a year, reducing protection against the new variant.

This is compounded by a return to regular social mixing, as India began to play catch-up at the end of the last Covid-induced lockdown. The need for normalisation of economic activities led to relaxed preventive measures and heightened travel and gatherings, especially in urban centres like Mumbai, Chennai, and Delhi. When the new variant landed in India, transmission was easily facilitated.

Also, unlike typical respiratory illness patterns, this surge is occurring during summer, mirroring trends in Singapore and Hong Kong.

It must also be mentioned here that enhanced surveillance as a result of the 2020-21 threat has led to improved testing and genomic sequencing by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), which has increased case detection.

Should We Be Concerned?

While the rise in cases signals that Covid-19 remains endemic, the situation is under control. Experts, including Dr Suranjit Chatterjee of Indraprastha Apollo Hospital and Dr Arup Halder of CMRI Hospital, Kolkata, note that while JN.1 and its sub-lineages are highly transmissible, they are less severe than prior Omicron strains.

Continued vigilance, adherence to public health measures, and timely vaccine boosters should help India navigate this phase effectively.

Measures Indian Health Authorities Are Taking

The Indian government and health officials are responding proactively. As noted above, improved surveillance and testing by the health authorities, and intensified genomic sequencing by INSACOG, particularly in high-case states like Kerala and Maharashtra, have kept the case load in check.

Meanwhile, Delhi has deployed an eight-member team to monitor hospital preparedness. Facilities are being equipped with sufficient beds, oxygen, and testing kits. Delhi Health Minister Pankaj Singh has confirmed readiness for any potential surge.  

Without raising unnecessary alarms, the government has been quietly issuing public health advisories. Recommendations include mask-wearing in hospitals and crowded settings, regular hand hygiene, and booster vaccinations for high-risk groups. Kerala has mandated masks in healthcare facilities.

On the vaccination front, India had administered over 2.2 billion doses during 2020-21. While Covishield and Covaxin remain effective and are noted to reduce severe outcomes by up to 80 per cent, booster uptake needs improvement.

Are Existing Vaccines Effective?

Yes, vaccines like Covishield and Covaxin remain effective, reducing severe disease by up to 80 per cent and symptomatic infections by 50 per cent. However, waning immunity in individuals who have not received recent boosters underscores the need for high-risk groups to stay up-to-date with vaccinations.

What Precautions Can We Take?

Health experts recommend that we wear masks in crowded or indoor settings, especially in hospitals. They also advise practising regular hand hygiene.

As before, we should avoid contact with individuals showing symptoms, while high-risk groups in particular should seek booster vaccinations. As for persistent symptoms like persistent low-grade fever (37.6°C-38.1°C or 99.6°F-100.5°F), or increased gastrointestinal symptoms, such as loss of appetite and persistent nausea, consult a healthcare provider.

(The writer is Special Resident Commissioner, Odisha. She is an IAS officer, a physician, and Doctor of Public Health from Harvard. Views are personal)