It has already been endorsed by the G20 countries and included in the G20 declaration from New Delhi this past September. Some of the most influential players in the climate negotiations – the United States, European Union and COP28 hosts UAE -- have been backing it. As of last week, more than 60 countries had lent their support to the proposal, which is also strongly recommended by organisations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

More importantly, there is no major opposition to the proposal. During the summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, even Beijing chose to come on board.

 

For a world that has struggled to meet even the modest climate targets and thus fallen back in the race against time to contain the damage from climate change, tripling of renewable energy in this decade is an important and doable, though still small, step towards corrective action.

Important gains

It is not that tripling of renewable energy, if achieved, will solve the climate crisis, or help the world meet its stated goal of keeping the temperature rise within 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times (the average of annual temperatures between 1850 and 1900). It will also not eliminate the use of fossil fuels. But it would still be an ambitious step forward, nonetheless, in moving towards the goal of a net-zero emissions world by 2050.

 

According to the IEA, this single measure could avoid 7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions between now and 2030, or one billion tonnes on an average every year. This is likely to be more than emissions reductions caused by all the other climate measures being undertaken right now. Global emissions of greenhouse gases are still increasing year on year. Even in 2030, the annual emissions, with all the current climate actions, are expected to be just one billion tonnes CO2 equivalent less than the 2019 levels.

 

Along with a doubling in energy efficiency globally, tripling of renewable energy is being considered absolutely vital for keeping hopes alive for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius or less, which, currently, seems to be slipping out of our grip.

 

The growth of renewable energy in the last one decade offers hope that tripling can be achieved in the next seven years. “Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is an ambitious yet achievable goal,” the IEA said one of its recent reports.

 

In absolute terms, renewable energy capacity additions have grown every year since 2010, averaging an annual growth of about 10 per cent. In 2022, more than 290 GW of additional capacity was installed (see chart). The total current installed capacity of renewable energy is 3,382 GW, according to the latest figures from IRENA. To triple it to 11,174 GW by 2030, nearly 1,000 GW of capacity needs to be added every year till 2030. In other words, renewable energy capacity additions must happen at a pace twice faster than the current rate. It is difficult, but not impossible.

So far, most of the renewable energy capacity has been installed in the developed world – the United States, Germany, Japan, France, Canada and Spain – and in large developing countries such as China, India and Brazil. These countries together account for about two-thirds of the global renewable capacity (about 2,200 GW). China (over 1,000 GW) alone accounts for about a third.

The greatest opportunity for further expansion is in countries like China and India and in the relatively undeveloped markets of Africa.India’s renewable energy capacity (currently at about 150 GW) has been growing at nearly 10 per cent for the last couple of years, but far bigger expansions are planned. New Delhi has announced plans to reach 500 GW of renewable energy installed capacity by 2030.

The share of renewable energy in global installed electricity capacity is about 40 per cent right now. Tripling would increase it to 77 per cent. That is because, during this time, the total installed electricity capacity is also expected to grow by about 72 per cent. This is needed to provide electricity access to the nearly 675 million people across the globe who still do not have it, and to improve the quality of electricity consumption in large parts of the developing world.

Not a done deal

The tripling target looks eminently achievable, and that is the main reason why many countries have been pushing for it. Perhaps for the first time, they can have the satisfaction of achieving a meaningful climate target. But it is by no means an easy target. It would require a huge effort from the countries for creating the enabling environment, in terms of policies and resources.

 

The big difficulty, unsurprisingly, might be in finding the money to finance this growth. The impressive increase of renewables in the last decade has rode on an unexpectedly rapid expansion of solar energy, which itself was powered by sharp drop in costs -- nearly 90 per cent -- enabled mainly by technology developments and huge demand. There is unlikely to be any further significant cost reductions in solar energy, though there is scope, at least theoretically, for the demand to continue. Policy incentives and enabling environment, including creation of infrastructure, would be the key to power the deployment of renewables in the energy-starved areas.

 

IRENA estimates that investments of about US$ 30 trillion would be required to meet the twin objectives of tripling of renewable energy and doubling of energy efficiency by the year 2030. This is in line with the earlier assessment of about US$ 4 trillion needed every year till 2030 for achieving the net zero targets by 2050. But money has been in extremely short supply, so much so that even the relatively modest sum of US$ 100 billion that the developed countries had promised to provide to the developing world in climate finance every year from 2020 onwards has not been realised. Developed countries are expected to meet this goal this year, but the requirements have since skyrocketed.

 

Besides, even if the tripling target is achieved, it would not be adequate, in itself, to hold the global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degree Celsius. This benchmark is in clear danger of being breached, for the first time, this year itself. 2023 has smashed a series of warming records, and scientists now say that it is more than 90 per cent certain that this year would emerge as the warmest ever, beating the record of 2016. In the assessment of World Meteorological Organisation, which had come earlier in the year, the 1.5 degree Celsius benchmark was almost certain to be breached at least once in the next five years.

 

To be sure, scientists are more worried about long-term warming beyond 1.5 degree Celsius, and not in the annual spikes. But the way warming has increased over the last three decades, it wouldn’t take long for the occasional spike to become long-term trend.

 

Current projections show that greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 would exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius compatible levels by about 24 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Tripling of renewable energy would make only a minor dent into this massive gap. Still, if agreed upon at COP28, it could be an important confidence building measure, and may create the momentum for more ambitious actions on other fronts as well.

(The author is Deputy Editor with the Indian Express. Views expressed are personal)