For the unversed, COP is an annual meeting among member states of the United Nations that convenes to assess progress in dealing with climate change and devise plans for climate action.

India’s single-point agenda for COP 29 seems to be securing adequate climate finance, which has been repeatedly reiterated by the Global South for decades.

The transfer of a promised US$ 100 billion fund — emphasised in the Paris Agreement, 2016 and the recognition that countries in the Global South need over US$ 2 trillion to meet their climate goals — are expected to be central topics at Baku. Along with this, the Azerbaijan presidency will focus on building consensus for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a key component of the Paris Agreement aimed at mobilising financial support for these nations. 

This collective goal aims to establish clearer and more substantial funding commitments to help the Global South address climate challenges.

Climate Finance Essential For India’s Future

India alone needs upwards of US$ 200 billion investment annually to meet its energy transition targets, but has on average received less than US$ 50 billion collectively from governments and the private sector, domestically and intenationally. 

As a result, India’s target of setting up 500 gigawatt (GW) capacity of renewable energy by 2030 seems a difficult ask, given that we have already fallen short of achieving its 2022 target of installing 175 GW of wind energy by almost half.

With the climate conversation moving from mitigation to adaptation, and now to loss and damage, the lack of adequate financing has compounded the problem for India, which needs to work on all three aspects of climate action.

Loss and damage could be central to India’s climate strategy, particularly because the country has a coastline of over 7,500 km that is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Moreover, since 2020, India has experienced increasingly erratic and extreme weather conditions, leading to the loss of thousands of lives due to heatwaves, floods and cyclones.

Besides this, given that over 60 per cent of India’s working population is directly dependent on agricultural activities, India also needs to invest in long-term strategies for building climate resilience in its agri-supply chain, and to support its farmers. 

The brunt of climate change faced by farmers has been exacerbated by the falling productivity of agricultural land — a result of low soil organic carbon — which has diminished water tables and caused erratic and intense rainfall, and changing weather patterns. These issues require huge investments for mitigation and adaptation.

As the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, India also needs to keep an eye on its increasing carbon footprint, and balance out the same with its developmental goals. Once again, securing adequate financing is central to this strategy, given that India is projected to keep increasing its carbon footprint over at least the next two decades. 

Today, producing electricity from coal is still cheaper than using solar or wind power, and is therefore replacing the renewable sources. Despite strong global criticism, it is both unrealistic and unfair to expect India to prioritise green electricity over the need to secure reliable and sustainable energy for its population.

Other Factors Driving India's Agenda

The other two important components of India’s strategy, going into COP 29, will be via its recently-launched global initiatives — International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA). 

Having only recently been re-elected as the president of the ISA, India has already demonstrated its enormous stake in global conversations, steering the adoption of solar energy for energy transition. 

Within its short lifespan, the ISA has garnered huge international support and credibility through on-ground and policy interventions and partnerships, and was one of the most effective drivers of Global South-based conversations from an India point of view, at previous COPs as well. 

The GBA, which is relatively nascent and missing from action so far, also made its debut in COP 28, and will only be expanding its reach in the upcoming COP to lay the groundwork for biofuel adoption — a strategic option for India because of its enormous farm- and agri- resources, building up on the conversations under previous presidencies of India and Brazil at the G-20. 

Given that Brazil, which shares India’s interests in biofuels, will also be presiding over COP 30, and has publicly declared that biofuels will be one of the main activities it will focus on next year, this COP will play a crucial role in facilitating it. 

Downer For The Global South

The recent re-election of Donald Trump as the President of the USA, has called for further pragmatism across nations of the Global South, including India. 

Given his antagonistic stance on climate change and the Paris Agreement, highlighted by the USA’s backing out from the latter under Trump’s previous presidency, building an already fledgling consensus on climate financing for the Global South would be exacerbated. 

Therefore, it is not going to be an optimistic COP for countries of the Global South, or for anyone who cares about the climate in terms of outcomes. 

Consensus over NCGQ also seems to be in doubt, given the USA’s disproportionate sway in the functioning of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). Beyond this, securing climate finance from the Global North in the form of high-interest loans, which is counterproductive and unjust to developing countries that have not been historical emitters of CO2, would also see a falling number of takers. 

Deloitte had estimated that India is set to lose more than 35 trillion US$ in the next 50 years due to climate change. Under this scenario, and the falling confidence of world governments in entities like the COP, the expected polarisation and lack of consensus in the lead up to COP 29, could broaden the blow to climate discussions.

(The writer is a climate expert. Views expressed are personal)