Climate Change Has A New Victim In India -- Voter Turnout In Elections 2024

The first phase of voting held on April 19 saw voter turnout dip by 4 percentage points compared to the last parliamentary elections held in 2019. The remaining phases -- six of them stretched over 44 days, until June 1 -- will unlikely see a trend reversal as summer peaks in the coming weeks and heat waves continue unabated.

Yes, climate change and consequent global warming have a new victim in India -- the voter turnout in the world's largest democracy.

The ongoing election process is the longest ever after the first one in early 1950s. It is also the one to be held under the most intense heat ever.

Heat waves are not new to India. Most of north, central and east India witnesses several spells of heat waves during the summer season, with temperatures soaring above 40 degrees centigrade or even higher. However, the nature of heat waves has changed dramatically in the last few years, a consequence of climate change, with both the intensity and frequency of these spells increasing significantly.

Changing Nature

Heat wave is not just about high temperatures. It is more about the deviation of temperature from the normally expected values. What makes them particularly dangerous for human health is the simultaneous prevalence of high humidity, a combination that is showing a rising trend.

This year’s heat wave in India is predicted to be more intense than ever. According to the forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most parts of the northern plains were likely to experience more than their normal share of heat wave days in the April-June period this year.

Typically, most places experience about four to eight days of heat waves during this period. But the IMD said this year the number of heat wave days could be anywhere between 10 to 20 days for most places in this region.

The most effective way to reduce the risks from heat waves is to minimise outdoor exposure as far as possible. Unfortunately, the elections would force large numbers of people -- those who are campaigning as well as those whose votes are being sought -- to remain outdoors for prolonged periods of time.

Door to door campaigning, political meetings, gatherings, and rallies attract large crowds, and all these people would be vulnerable to the adverse effects of extreme heat.

Election Commission's Response

It is not that the Election Commission is not sensitive to these risks. On the day it announced the election schedule, the EC also released a detailed advisory on heat waves.

In response to poor voting in the opening phase, the EC set up a taskforce earlier this week, comprising officials of IMD, EC, National Disaster Management Authority and the Ministry of Health, to review the impact of weather conditions five days ahead of each of the remaining phases.

At the time of announcing the elections, the EC had asked the chief electoral officers in every state to ensure that proper arrangements are made at every booth on the polling day to ensure that the risks from heat are minimised. Every booth must be equipped with drinking water facilities, shade, medical kits, toilets, seating provisions for elderly, it advised.

Curiously though, the EC advisory did not include any guidance to the political parties on how to conduct their political campaigns. This was a bit surprising considering the fact that at least 11 people had died due to heat stroke while attending a political gathering, not related to elections, in Mumbai in April last year. That was biggest heat-related death toll from any single political event in India.

It was expected that the Mumbai incident would prompt a general advisory for any large gathering in an open space during the summer months, and especially for the elections, but that has not happened.

Though it is unlikely to be complied in full, political parties could be advised to hold their rallies or meetings in the mornings or evenings as far as possible. They could also be asked to make the same kind of arrangements that the Election Commission advised its officers to ensure at the booths. It would be difficult to monitor the compliance of such directives, but it would help in creating awareness and raising sensitivity.

This would not be the last elections to be held under extreme heat. All forecasts suggest that heat waves are likely to become more frequent, intense and prolonged because of climate change. That means conducting future general elections could be even more challenging.

Time To Rethink Timing Of Elections

The scheduling of elections in April and May was precipitated by Atal Behari Vajpayee government’s decision to call in early elections in 2004. Another early election, necessitated either due to a similar decision by a future government or a premature dissolution of Parliament, could change the schedule.

The Election Commission also could, in consultation with political parties, suggest revising this schedule. Curtailing the life of Parliament by one month should be adequate, although the month of March poses difficulties of another kind. Most of the school and college examinations are held during this month. Elections can cause a big disruption.

That is why reducing the length of the electoral process becomes very important. The compulsions of security arrangements and other logistical paraphernalia are understandable, but some ways need to be found, not just because of worsening heat waves but also due to the fact that governance gets affected for almost three full months.

Continuing to hold elections under extreme heat conditions could lead to voter apathy and reduced participation. This in turn could undermine the democratic process. The impact of heat waves on our election process is an issue that needs to be addressed.

(The author is a sustainability expert and Deputy Editor at the Indian Express. Views expresed are personal)