Can The New Canadian PM Revive Global Climate Discourse?

While there is little possibility of “tariff” ceding its place soon as the word of the year, the question which arises is whether the chances of climate change making a re-emergence in the global discourse may have gone up slightly with Mark Carney — a former United Nations Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance — being elected Prime Minister of Canada.

In April 2021, wearing his then UN hat, Carney, in association with the COP26 presidency, had launched the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) “to accelerate the transition to a Net Zero global economy”.     

While one would have to wait to see how proactive Carney is on the climate issue in his new avatar, the 2025 G7 Leaders’ Summit in Canada from June 15 to 17 may provide the earliest inkling of how the former banker would like to shape the climate agenda in a new world order which has seen the United States withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Canada holds this year’s G7 presidency.

What could make Carney’s statements on climate change at this meeting even more interesting to watch out for is the fact that Alberta — where this year’s G7 Leaders’ Summit is scheduled — is the largest producer of crude oil in Canada, accounting for 84 per cent of total Canadian production in 2023. As per Canada's energy regulator, Alberta also accounted for 61 per cent of Canada’s total natural gas production in 2023.

In this context, it may be relevant to mention that Carney’s Liberal Party — in the plan it had laid down prior to the elections — had not gone overboard when talking about clean energy.

“It’s time to build Canada into an energy superpower that combines our conventional energy resources with our unlimited potential in clean, affordable energy. It is what will power the economy of the future — it will be the backbone of the economy we build together,” the Liberal Party agenda said.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Canada’s electricity generation in 2023 was predominantly accounted for by hydro (58 per cent) followed by nuclear (14.3 per cent), natural gas (13.6 per cent), and other sources that included coal, wind, etc. Natural gas and oil, though, still have the biggest shares of the total energy supply in Canada.

Implications For COP30

If Carney can champion of the climate cause at this year’s G7 Leaders’ Summit, and more importantly, succeed in getting a statement out of the G7 Leaders’ Summit 2025 that reflects the bloc’s support towards meeting their climate finance commitments to developing countries, this would send out an excellent message ahead of the COP30 meeting in Brazil in November. A G7 statement usually serves as a good indicator of what its members are likely to say at the global climate summit.

Developing countries, including India, have not reacted favourably to the Baku Finance Goal agreed on at the November 2024 COP29 in Azerbaijan, claiming that the target was woefully inadequate. The Baku Finance Goal has set a new global target to channel US$ 1.3 trillion of climate finance to developing countries by 2035. This includes a new core finance goal of US$ 300 billion that triples the previous US$ 100 billion target.

According to a statement made by India’s Permanent Representative to the UN on March 5, “At COP30, India will push for an unequivocal commitment to enhanced climate finance — that is predictable, transparent, and accessible — which is crucial for the large-scale deployment of clean energy, disaster-resilient infrastructure and adaptation projects.”  

“The developing world requires trillions of dollars for a just transition, and yet, the developed nations have consistently fallen short of their financial obligations. The cost of this failure is borne disproportionately by the people in developing countries, who have contributed the least to the problem, but suffer the most from its consequences. Public climate finance from developed countries must fully compensate for the additional burden placed on developing nations, as they deviate from their least-cost development pathways,” India’s Permanent Representative to the UN added.

Incidentally, the COP30 President-Designate André Aranha Corrêa do Lago of Brazil, in a letter issued on March 10, reiterated, “The call is on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country parties for climate action, from all public and private sources, to at least US$ 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.”

With the letter going on to add that it “is high time multilateral development banks (MDBs) and international financial institutions (IFIs) evolved into bigger, better, and more effective entities that structurally support enhanced, ambitious climate action”.

Expectations From India

From the perspective of India, which is hopeful of working closely with the new Canadian government, the expectation from Carney on the climate front would be that he would display greater understanding of the problems faced by the Global South on climate finance and energy transition issues.  

Nothing could be better from an India standpoint than Carney acting as a strong advocate for raising the climate finance target to meet the needs of developing countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

India will also hope Carney can convince some of the biggest private sector names to pump more money into the energy transition process, as governments by themselves can only do so much.

Although India has committed to meet 50 per cent of its energy needs from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030, the world’s most populous nation must do a fine balancing act to achieve a just transition, given the paucity of resources and the need to protect a large number of livelihoods dependent on fossil fuels. It is estimated that India’s coalfields have around 2 crore (20 million) informal workers.

Concluding Thoughts

At the end of the day, there are few world leaders who carry such impeccable credentials as Carney in the climate domain. Canada under Carney demonstrating that it would utilise its G7 presidency to provide a fillip to the climate cause would, thus, be the big hope. 

After all, Canada with its aspirations “to build the strongest economy in the G7” needs to prove that it can step up when things are at their most challenging.

(The writer is a current affairs commentator. Views are personal)