Brute Power, Crude Reserves: Attack On Venezuela Reimposes US Intervention Policy

This brought back memories of Panama in 1989, when the then Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega was captured by the US. 

A few shed tears following the dramatic capture of Noriega, but the Venezuela operation is clearly different. It needs to be noted that Venezuela has one of the world’s largest crude oil reserves. The operation has once again brought into focus "the militarisation of the US foreign policy" in what can be described as a repeat of the Libya operation and also the removal of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. 

US President Donald Trump repeatedly mentioned that Washington wants to dominate its neighbourhood and the periphery in what is known as "the Americas", and the operation to capture Maduro was part of that strategy. 

The US President appears more focused on controlling the neighbourhood rather than countering China in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Over the past year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, given his interest in Latin America, was focused on the region rather than Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. Rubio made a few trips to Asia and Europe, while Trump’s family members and friends took the lead in addressing West Asian conflicts and the Ukraine war. And controlling China’s rise does not appear to be a priority for the Trump administration.

Monroe Doctrine 

The Monroe Doctrine has been revived, allowing Washington to exert control over the region.

The Monroe Doctrine, which came into existence in 1823 during US President James Monroe’s administration, has been a cornerstone of the US's foreign policy. The doctrine declared the Western Hemisphere closed to European colonisation and interference. At the same time, the US committed to non-interference in European affairs and its existing colonies. It stated that any European attempt to control nations in the Americas would be seen as a hostile act.

It became the thrust for the US policy, asserting US dominance and security interests in the Americas. 

Later, this strategy, in the parlance of international relations, came to be known as "Spheres of Influence"; during the Cold War period, the US ensured that it controlled every Latin American country primarily through dictators. 

Cuba, however, stood out.

What Lies Ahead

The Venezuela operation yet again made one thing clear – that the US is deeply embedded in the Monroe Doctrine, and it will not hesitate to remove a President in South America who is opposed to Washington. The regime in Cuba needs to watch out now. 

The Trump administration has been a proponent of spheres of influence, thereby reducing the US security commitment in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. 

The Venezuela episode may just embolden China to assert its right in Taiwan, and the US may only end up issuing statements of condemnation. 

First Island Chain

Japan may need to watch out for the next Chinese moves of breaking the "first Island chain" in the Indo-Pacific region by integrating Taiwan. 

The Venezuelan operation may also give ideas in pockets of West Asia, where countries might want to assert their sphere of influence. It is also increasingly clear that the US wants Europe to accommodate Russia in the European security architecture. 

While Maduro is no Hugo Chavez, who utilised Venezuela’s oil resources and lifted the quality of life in the South American country, and was also not known to be an efficient administrator or economist, the US operation is a violation of the rules-based international order, which Washington otherwise espouses. Though the previous US administrations backed Maduro’s opponents to take over, the Trump administration wanted to recreate an operation similar to the one that took out Taliban leader Osama Bin Laden. The difference in this case is that a US administration intervened to take out a leader of a foreign country. 

Global Oil Prices

The next few weeks would be critical as the US control over the crude reserves of Venezuela might shape global oil prices and increase the US's bargaining power vis-à-vis the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia. Riyadh will keep a close watch on the US moves, and what Washington does with the Venezuelan oil assets will be key for the world. The next few weeks will be critical for Iran, too. 

India needs to keep a close watch on the flow of crude oil in the global market while trying to maintain its principled position on non-intervention in internal affairs by an outside power. 

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views are personal.)