Ahead Of COP28, UN Calls For Aggressive Climate Action As Emissions Reach Record High

Science prescribes a minimum of 43 per cent reduction to keep alive hopes of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times (average of 1850-1900 period).

 

Not surprisingly, this annual UNEP publication called the Emissions Gap Report, has concluded, not for the first time, that the world was headed towards a 3 degree Celsius rise in temperatures by the end of the century. It comes just a week ahead of the COP28 summit in Dubai, where global leaders are expected to explore a more aggressive climate action agenda than what they have pursued so far.

"The world must change track, or we will be saying the samething next year – and the year after, and the year after, likea broken record," wrote Inger Anderson, UNEP's executive director.

 

Concerning as it is, this, however, is not the most important message of the report. Not even the disconcerting fact that global emissions were still increasing in 2022, when it has to be brought down by almost half in eight years’ time. The most important message from the report is that even emissions of the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases -- China and the United States -- were still increasing.

 

The third largest emitter, India, has also been seeing its emissions grow. But India’s case for developmental needs is fairly well-accepted, and it is understood that its emissions will continue to rise in the near future. In any case, its emissions are small compared to China or the United States, and its per capita emissions is less than half of the world average.

China’s annual emissions are four times that of India’s, while the US emissions are about 1.5 to 2 times higher. Together, China and the United States account for about 40 per cent of global emissions. There is no way global emissions can slow down till emissions in these two countries continue to rise.

 

Even among these two, the case of the United States stands out. The US has been the world’s largest emitter throughout history, till China overtook it in the first decade of this century. Even with nearly 15 years of China emitting at substantially higher levels, the US accounts for nearly 20 per cent of all historical emissions.

The Elephant In The Room

Because of its role, the US was supposed to have the maximum responsibility in making the emissions cuts. But it never ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the previous climate change regime in which countries considered responsible for emissions were assigned specific emission reduction targets, even though it played a key role in negotiating it. The story was repeated with Paris Agreement, when the Donald Trump administration decided to walk out of it.

 

The US returned to Paris Agreement in 2020 after Joe Biden took over, and has set for itself an emission reduction target of 50-52 per cent on 2005 levels by the year 2030. That translates to less than 45 per cent reduction on 2019 levels. It means that the United States is doing barely what is required for the world as a whole to do to keep alive hopes of meeting the 1.5 degree Celsius target. It is not taking any leadership responsibility, which as the world’s largest historical emitter, it is mandated, under the Paris Agreement, to take.

 

The fulfilment of bare minimum requirements by the United States, or the European Union which is doing only slightly better, constrains the space for others like India to let their emissions grow in the short term in pursuit of developmental needs. They are also the reason why the world will most likely miss the 43 per cent reduction target for 2030, even though the United States and the EU may themselves be able to achieve their 2030 targets.

 

As pointed out by the Emissions Gap Report, global emissions would have to reduce by an average of 8.7 per cent every year from 2024, if the 2030 target has to be met. Such large cuts in annual emissions have never happened. In fact, annual emissions have never declined. They are still increasing, albeit at a slightly slower rate than in the previous decade.

 

The only temporary dip in annual emissions happened in 2020, caused by the Covid pandemic. But even such a huge disruption resulted in only a 4.7 per cent drop in annual emissions in 2020 compared to 2019. A 8.7 per cent reduction hereon would need nothing short of a miracle.

 

Interestingly, the report notes that if adequate reductions had started in 2010, things would have been far more manageable right now.

 

“As highlighted in the Emissions Gap Report 2019, the underlying data from the (earlier Emission Gap) reports reveal that had serious climate action been initiated in 2010, the annual emission reductions necessary to achieve emission levels consistent with the below 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2030 would have been only 0.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent on average, respectively," the report said.

The lack of stringent emission reductions means that the required emission cuts from now to 2030 have increased significantly. To reach emission levels consistent with a below 2°C pathway in 2030, the cuts required per year are now 5.3 per cent from 2024, reaching 8.7 per cent per year on average for the 1.5°C pathway,” it said.

 

But the previous decade was a lost opportunity as the developed countries focused their energies on negotiating a favourable Paris Agreement in the place of Kyoto Protocol that made them accountable to their past emissions. Most of the countries mandated to cut their emissions under the Kyoto Protocol never fulfilled their commitments. Some of them even walked out of Kyoto Protocol. Even as a block, the developed countries’ pre-2020 commitments remained unfulfilled.

 

The way it is going right now, it seems, their relatively modest commitments for this decade might be fulfilled, allowing them to claim that they had done their job, even though the global target is likely to remain far from being achieved.