Will The Centre Ban Crop Exports In Case Of A Weak Harvest?

The question is this: would then the Centre impose export restrictions?

While there is no imminent threat to the country’s food security, the rise in prices of vegetables and other staples may prompt the Centre to either ban exports or increase duties.

The ban on wheat exports that was imposed in 2022 was lifted only this year, in February. After China, India is the second-largest producer of wheat in the world.  

A senior government official said that there is no immediate plan to reverse the decision. Still, the situation is being closely monitored, the situation and the domestic market will be the priority.

Wheat, a Rabi crop, is typically grown during the onset of winter, around October-November.

The implications of such abrupt bans on the outbound shipment of crops are not just restricted to farmers and exporters, it has wider ramifications. India stands to lose credibility as a reliable seller on the global map, and this leads to loss of markets. That apart, such policy decisions have diplomatic implications too.

India’s Earlier Export Bans On Onions, Wheat, Rice

In December 2023, India had imposed a ban on exports of onion, an essential kitchen ingredient, to contain price surge in the domestic market. While the ban was in place till March 31, 2024, the Centre thereafter announced a 40% export duty and minimum price restrictions.

The result? In the last three years, Pakistan and Afghanistan have managed to significantly increase their share of onion exports. Sources said this is largely due to the continuous ban on onion exports in India.

The maximum number of onions is produced in Maharashtra and Karnataka. India exported 15.4 lakh tonnes of onions in 2024-25, the main destination being Bangladesh.

Dhaka has brought up the issue several times in the past. Besides, Bangladesh, UAE, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and several other countries in the Middle East are the top importers of Indian onions.

There could be a shortage of vegetables, and this would naturally push prices, but imposition of sudden bans does not augur well, and this dents India’s export markets. Not only do our farmers suffer, but we lose markets 

– Anil Ghanwat, senior leader of Shetkari Sangathana, a Maharashtra-based farmers' union, earlier told The Secretariat

Fertiliser Availability 

Global prices of fertilisers have started to escalate as well. The Centre has maintained that fertiliser supplies have remained robust and there will be no shortage during the Kharif season.

According to an official statement, the fertiliser requirement for this Kharif season stands at around 390.54 LMT. About 180 LMT over 45% has been made available as opening stock, “significantly higher than the usual pre-season level of about 33%.”

In a separate report, ratings agency Fitch noted that India, the second largest importer of fertilisers, has sufficient stockpiles for the upcoming planting seasons.

Despite the availability of fertilisers, fear among farmers and exporters has risen. “Going by past experiences, we have seen the Centre taking abrupt decisions on food and crop exports. This is a cause for concern,” an analyst who did not wish to be identified said.

India, considered a key supplier of food to the world, needs to ensure that decisions are taken only after weighing all pros and cons.