Since 1881, India has conducted the decennial exercise without any delay or postponement. However, the delay this time has meant that the government schemes launched over the past few years are based on obsolete data. There could be other significant implications on policymaking of this continued delay.

The census is crucial for four main reasons. It determines population size & demography, helps in planning & development, empowers electoral representation, and contributes to optimum resource allocation. It tracks gender distribution, socio-economic disparity, healthcare access, and welfare scheme penetration. By not updating census data, there is no way any policy intervention would give results. In fact, it can even be counter-productive.

Unlike other similar exercises – such as the National Family Health Survey, the Periodic Labour Force Survey, or the National Sample Survey – which provide sample data across different geographies and socio-economic settings, census provides an all-encompassing, raw data drawn through a door-to-door countrywide survey. It is one of the most important aspects of nation-building, especially if a nation seeks to rationalise its vast array of socio-economic initiatives.

The importance of a nationwide census was recently in focus after the parliament passed the 128th constitutional amendment — also called the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam — in September this year. The legislation, which provides 33 per cent reservation for women in Lok Sabha and state assemblies, was passed after a wait of 27 years. But this bill can be implemented only after the 2026 delimitation exercise, which has to be based on the latest census.

Sectors Most Hit By A Delayed Census

1.Welfare schemes

In absence of empirical data about the country’s population, their gender, socio-economic conditions etc, how can a government plan a welfare scheme that targets the vulnerable? How would the policymakers know what kind of support a particular geography requires?

Take the example of the National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP), a fully funded central government scheme. Poor people are the primary target of this scheme and census its main data source. The scheme, today, has a higher fund allocation than it had during its launch in 1995. But there are no updated statistics to understand how many even qualify to receive its benefits.

Another example of efficiency in delivering results could be the special economic package of Rs 20 lakh crore (about 10% of GDP) for an Atma Nirbhar (self-reliant) Bharat. In May 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the package to support various sectors, including the cottage industry, MSMEs, labourers, the middle-class and industries. While one would agree the government may have made estimates based on the 2011 census data during the launch of the scheme, questions remain on how do they revise the estimates, how do they track the beneficiaries without updating the data.

2.Health

Any policy intervention in the health sector depends fully on the data available. How does one allocate or set targets for large budgetary provisions while knowing nothing about the health outcomes in the last decade.

In 2018, the government announced the Ayushman Bharat-Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) to provide a health cover of Rs 5 lakh to each family every year for secondary and tertiary care hospitalisation to poor and vulnerable families. The scheme was designed using data from the 2011 Census. At the end of a full census cycle, the ministry has yet to adjust either the number of vulnerable households or the amount available.

3.Housing

Again, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, which runs the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban, has to rely on data that may not be accurate. The PMAY-(U) aims at providing ease of living to urban migrants/poor in the industrial sector as well as in the non-formal urban economy to get access to dignified affordable rental housing close to their workplace. Similarly, there is no clarity on how successful the Affordable Rental Housing Complexes scheme has been. The scheme was launched in July 2020 to provide affordable rental accommodation to urban poor.

Typically, schemes and programmes do not have their own surveys to assess them, instead they rely on larger enumeration exercises – such as the census – to analyse their performance. There is no doubt that updated data would not just help the government design and implement welfare schemes more effectively but also keep track of their robustness.

SK Singh, the recently appointed director of the International Institute of Population Sciences, says, “There is no policy crisis due to a lack of census data. India has its own database for tracking social programmes and policies, and there are numerous polls to examine." "There are definitely advantages to having a census as it gives a complete picture of the population vis-a-vis the surveys that provide estimations and trends that usually have a larger margin of error," he told The Secretariat.

Pronab Sen, India's former chief statistician, said in a recent interview, "The flavour of the day is evidence-based policy-making. Policy cannot be made on the basis of gut feelings or assumptions."

There are three critical links between data and policy. Data is used to define a problem, determine its scope and to track policy implementation, Sen said, adding it’s not that data has completely vanished in the last 10 years, but macro-level datasets on industry and economy are still available. It is the micro-level data related to access and quality of life and services that has suffered the most, especially due to absence of a timely census, he said.