2023 Second-Warmest Ever For India, UK, Shows Global Warming Likely Accelerating

Scientists have said that the year 2023, which featured several extreme and deadly climate events, was the warmest year in some parts of the world and the second-warmest in several others. The India Meteorology Department has announced that the annual mean air temperature for the country in 2023 was 0.65 degree Celsius above normal, meaning it was the second-warmest year since record-keeping began in 1901.

For the UK, which also experienced 2023 as its second-warmest year, the data paints a more severe situation. Only in 2022, it had faced the warmest year. The British met office said climate change has made high temperatures "significantly more likely".

Others say 2023 could well be the warmest year globally. Organisations such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe, and US agencies Nasa and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will reportedly make their “warmest year on record” announcements over the next couple of weeks.

What should be alarming is the fact that globally the two warmest years recorded recently were 2016 and 2020. Within a few years, the record has likely been broken. It is expected that 2024 would be no different. The World Meteorological Organisation has already warned that the global temperature rise is “more likely than not” to breach the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold at least once between 2023 and 2027.

“Global warming is evident and indisputable. The Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by approximately 1 degree Celsius since the late 19th century. Previously deemed the warmest year, 2020 has been surpassed by 2023,” said Sumit Roy, Head, Production Landscape, WWF-India.

Successive years of high temperatures give credence to the hypothesis that global warming is accelerating. This means increased evaporation on land, which will worsen drought and lead to dry conditions supportive of widespread wildfires. It also means heavier precipitation events – rain and snowfall - elsewhere.

A stark illustration is the recent Cyclone Michaung that struck the southern coastline in early December, causing substantial damage to standing crops, said Roy, adding that these occurrences carry profound implications for agricultural production and, consequently, the food security of the region.

A combination of factors are responsible for putting the world in this situation. Some of them are naturally occurring such as the EL Nino phenomenon but a majority of them are caused by humans – for instance, the unabated burning of fossil fuels for energy and deforestation or stubble residues in farms in North India.

Impact On Agriculture

Climate experts, including at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have warned that the long-term global average temperature rise must be kept below 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius to avoid catastrophic consequences, such as higher sea levels and an even greater number of intense heat waves that claim lives, devastate crops, kill wildlife and drive warmer temperatures.

Anushree Joshi, a Bangalore-based climate and sustainability researcher at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), said a key reason for the global temperature rise is that a number of countries and big corporations are yet to accept the 1.5C threshold. “The under-2C scenario vs the 1.5C pathway has gotten us into a bit of a chaotic situation right now. This is not something unexpected.”

The Indo-Pacific is likely to be one of the hardest-hit regions by climate change. According to an Asian Development Bank report, 75 per cent of farmers are dependent on agriculture across the continent. Climate change is projected to reduce crop productivity by 15-20 per cent (or even 50 per cent in the case of some crops) by 2050.

By 2030, regional demand for water is set to exceed supply by nearly 40 per cent. Agriculture uses 70 per cent of the world’s fresh water resources and is thus highly vulnerable to water risks. Water shortages impact not only food production but the entire value chain, and obviously food security.

Climate change reduces crop yields and lower nutrition quality of the produce. Extreme events like droughts affect the food and nutrient consumption. Studies conducted by the Indian government have projected that rainfed rice yields could reduce by 20 per cent by 2050 and 47 per cent by 2080 in absence of climate change adaptation measures. Wheat yield is projected to reduce by 19.3 per cent by 2050.

“The ramifications extend across various sectors, notably in agriculture and food systems. It has been reported that a 1 degree increase in mean temperature could result in annual wheat yield losses in India amounting to approximately 6 million tons. When considering losses in all other crops, the cumulative projected impact is staggering, estimated at around Rs 1.6 trillion,” said Roy of the WWF-India.

He added that the factors contributing to these losses encompass reduced crop duration, heightened crop respiration rates, alterations in pest populations' survival and distribution, decreased nutrient-use efficiencies, and increased evaporation.

India has taken a few steps to make agriculture more resilient to climate change and is also formulating schemes under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Others too are taking similar steps. Whether these actions will prove adequate in the face of an intensifying climate change is a million-dollar question.

Energy Production & Consumption

The warming of the planet is set to impact the energy sector worldwide in several ways: hydropower production will be affected by changes in runoff and river flows; for thermal power plants, changes in cooling efficiency will impact their availability; and the energy transport infrastructure could be disrupted because of vulnerable climate events. Besides, energy demand may go up because of changes in space heating and cooling needs.

The International Monetary Fund said in a report that climate change is placing global energy security at risk. “It affects the extraction, processing and transport of fuels and minerals, and alters power generation potential, efficiency and reliability. Some of the major energy-sector disruptions seen in 2022 were due to extreme climatic conditions, which are becoming more frequent and intense because of climate change.”

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US will likely see a surge in energy demand for cooling during the summer months due to global warming, while the demand for energy would be less in the winter. However, the increased demand during summer is expected to outweigh any energy-use reductions in winter.

Joshi of the BCG said the world is looking at alternative energy solutions like solar and hydropower to address the potential surge in demand. “But capabilities for these solutions need to be built from the ground up. We also need to understand what kind of adoption is happening in different regions for these.”

Adapting to the changes in climate is one way of tackling the issue. The other, and more ambitious, way is to act collectively to stop or at least slow down the global temperature rise to a manageable level.